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Recently I read a good article by Stephen Carmichael on Music Think Tank called “How Google And Search Engine Optimization Changed The Music Industry.” In it he puts forth the premise that search engine optimization has changed music because it emphasizes good SEO technique as a means for high search ranking, which in turn means that “quality music” usually takes a backseat to what happens to be currently popular.

One of the examples he shows is how Rebecca Black’s viral hit video/song “Friday” still ranks highly on a innocent search of the word “friday.” If you were living in a cave last year, “Friday” became a huge hit mostly because it was so bad that you had to experience it at least once. Unless you were a 13 year-old girl. Then you probably thought it ranked right up there with Justin Bieber in the pantheon of greatest music of all time.

And that’s the problem when we try to define “quality music” (or quality anything for that matter). As the saying goes, “One man’s trash is another man’s treasure.” Skrillex’s music might be nirvana if you’re into EDM, but it might be the depths of audio hell if you’re into Nirvana the band. And likewise if you’re a big dixieland fan or marching band fan, or classical music fan, or hip-hop fan……. you get the point.

In fact, Frank Sinatra is regarded as one of the greatest singers and musical icons by most of the world (take a look at this footage of Ol’ Blue Eyes in the studio), but I had a very knowledgeable and well-thought-of music professor from a major university write me about his poor technique and phrasing and how it crushes him that the masses over-rate him so. Quality is a moving target.

That’s one of the reasons that I try to never make blanket statements like “This is bad,” “This is good,” or “This is mediocre” when doing the weekly song analysis on my Big Picture production blog. What I consider good or bad is probably exactly the opposite of someone out there, and who am I to say that they’re wrong?

Music is something that you can’t touch, but it can touch you. It’s all about how it speaks to you and makes you feel. It might be a hook, an arrangement, a melody or lyric that has that special spark that only you hear, even if the rest of the world doesn’t. It’s your special connection that takes you to another dimension that maybe only you can get to, and only from one particular song. Who is any one else to dare comment on that connection?

That’s why it’s so important for an artist to keep searching for an audience, because regardless of what kind of music you’re playing and your proficiency level, your audience is out there. It may be just a dozen people, but they’re waiting for you to find them. The music you make will be really important to them, even if the rest of the world doesn’t get it.

Making a hit is really, really hard, even for the best hit makers. When a song becomes a “hit” (meaning that some group of people immensely dig it), it’s happened for a reason. There’s magic that’s involved that should at least be appreciated, even if you can’t get your arms around it. Any music that touches the heart of another is special. The smartest in our business know enough to learn from that and apply it to their own work. Because in the end, music quality is a moving target. Hitting the bull’s eye is the tough part.

Via Billboard:

This year will mark the first time digital distribution revenue will overtake physical distribution in U.S. music sales, according to Pricewaterhouse Coopers’ Entertainment & Media Outlook 2012-2016, issued Tuesday. The continued rise of subscription-based streaming music services and digital downloads are projected to help the U.S. music market rise to $19.8 billion by 2016, a 5.5% increase from the $15.2 billion in 2011. Additionally, radio is projected to total $22.5 billion in 2016, a 4.1% increase from 2011, on the strength of increased spending on broadcast, satellite and online radio advertising.

“If you go back to 2007, 2008 and 2009, we’re at the end of a cycle where tremendous recorded music sales really drove the industry,” says Greg Boyer, PwC’s managing director of entertainment, media and communications. “After the 38 to 40% downturn over that rough period, the innovation, access and ability of subscription services is fueling the ability to at the very least get back to very healthy revenue numbers. It’s also providing unique opportunities for artists, for the labels, and unique opportunities for other companies that are growing up in that new environment.”

Declines in physical distribution will continue over the next five years, albeit at single-digit percentage rates, dropping from $3.4 billion in 2011 to $2.2 billion at an 8.0% compound annual decrease. Digital distribution, buoyed by a boost from streaming services, will rise at an 11.7% compound annual rate to $5.5 billion in 2016 from $3.1 billion in 2011. Total spending on recorded music will rise at a 3.4% compound annual rate to $7.7 billion in 2016, from $6.5 billion in 2011.

Live music will also see growth during the time period, with spending on concerts and music festival expected to expand at a 7% compound annual from from $8.7 billion in 2011 to $12.2 billion in 2016. Live music is also attributed as the leading factor for the U.S. music market’s 3.4% growth in 2011, with a return in concert ticket revenues making up for the declines in recorded music sales.

One revenue source not included in PwC’s report is commercial synch revenue, which IFPI included for the first time in its global “Recording Industry In Numbers” report this March. “It’s not included in our base projections, but it’s certainly a growing aspect of the business,” says Boyer. “More importantly, it’s one of the more stable parts of the business you can really depend on. With the recent M&A activity in music and how some of that has been priced into the market, specifically on the publishing and licensing side, you’re seeing very significant valuations related to the recorded music companies because of the stability of those revenues. I think you’ll see that continue as a core part of the next evolution of how the value of the labels and and the record companies is determined.”

On the radio front, 2012 will see a return of ad revenue after terrestrial ads declined 0.1% in 2011. Automotive and political spending will drive much of the growth this year, which will eventually slow down to a 3.0% compound annual increase to $18.2 billion by 2016, compared to $15.7 billion in 2011. Broadcast advertising will increase at a 2.7% compound rate through 2016, while online will grow by 11.5% during the same time period from $465 million in 2011 to $802 million in 2016. Satellite radio advertising will also rise from $74 million in 2011 to $116 million, at a 9.4% compound annual increase, with satellite-radio subscription spending expanding from $2.6 billion in 2011 to $4.1 billion in 2016. –Allindstrom